The easiest way to explain it is to quote the following ranking: Global Firepower. Ukraine is there currently ranked 15th in the world – it means that over the past year it has “jumped” more than 10 places. It is obvious as she defends herself very effectively against the Russians. The Polish military power has come in the 20th, so by a few places better than just a year ago – despite handing to Ukraine some of its armament. Russia is still second (after US) but is surely results from her having nuclear weapon.

A meticulous analysis of what we have given to the Ukrainians is not an easy one. The cause of it seems quite simple: for obvious reasons we don’t want the Russians to know precisely what and in what quantity we send to Ukraine. General information is easily available but the details are shrouded in mystery. And so it shall remain.

Secret facilities in southern Poland

The leading Canadian newspaper “Globe and Mail” has described mysterious warehouses repairing Ukrainian military equipment. They were shown on condition that the journalists didn’t disclose their location. Earlier on a similar (or maybe the same?) plant was written about by an American newspaper pointing out that it was located somewhere in south-eastern Poland. Apparently it has been equipped hastily: “the buildings are in as bad a shape as the armour that is dragged in. The vast main hall has a dirt floor. Many of the upper windows are missing, allowing chilly air to waft through the building. A dozen or so soldier mechanics, each of them covered in dirt, diesel fuel and grease, some of them smoking, banged away on the machines’ enormous diesel engines. Parts and coiled-up tank treads were strewn everywhere”.

As it was described by the journalists of the Canadian magazine some of the captured Russian armor carried a Z, which meant they were Russian tanks captured during the war. Shortly after the journalists arrived, “two of the mechanics (Ukrainian military men – ed.) smiled as they managed to start the 15.8-litre diesel engine of a Soviet-era BMP-1 tracked infantry fighting vehicle, a fairly light machine armed with a 73 mm gun and designed to transport eight soldiers into combat. The engine spewed clouds of diesel fumes, enveloping the two men in what looked like thick fog. Outside, where a few Russian T-72 tanks and one T-80 were parked, soldiers (Ukrainian – ed.) warmed their hands over a fire in an empty oil barrel. A couple of the tanks were still covered in camouflage. One T-72 appeared in good shape and was awaiting repairs to its electrical unit. Standing on the turret housing the 125 mm cannon, the tank’s heavily bearded commander said the machine would be ready for combat in a few days…”

But that’s not the only facility of this sort. “Wall Street Journal” wrote in January about a plant owned by the “Polish Armaments Group”, an equally covert one, but – judging from the photos – looking very neat and well-maintained. Plus it’s Poles who work there not Ukrainians. Among other things, it repairs Krabs damaged by Russian missiles: “On the factory floor, technicians work in three shifts around the clock and are in regular contact with Ukrainians on the battlefield. They share information about best techniques for repairs over encrypted messages and a HelpDesk app that helps them to troubleshoot problems. (…) Mechanics sometimes find soldiers’ belongings inside the Krabs: a toothbrush, unfinished snacks or family photos. Dariusz Gawinek, a mechanic, said that repairing the hardware has made him more committed to helping the war effort. – The Krabs arrive here with leaves, mud, sand, twigs stuck to the body and caterpillars. It is Ukrainian soil, he says”.

The number of tanks we’ve handed over?

We may be certainly laughing that since American or Canadian journalists have visited plants repairing Ukrainian armor and even if they were forbade to disclose their location, the information about their whereabouts is no longer secret. That is true – and yet we don’t tell everybody the exact information about these workshops.

SIGN UP TO OUR PAGE This makes it all the more important that an idea has been conceived of setting up a large arms factory in Poland. British daily “The Telegraph” wrote that the local MP Tobias Ellwood called for establishing in Poland a “massive arms factory” which would help Ukraine win its war against Russia. In his opinion the Western governments help Kyiv too little and the pattern of handing over various types of tanks with different supply chains and ammo types is “unsustainable”. – We need a strategy to make sure Ukraine can defend itself – he said.

But for the time being Poland – alike other countries – is handing over armor to our eastern neighbors. As it was put by Andrzej Duda at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, since the Russian aggression we have given Ukraine over 260 post-Soviet T-72, of different version. In turn, Mariusz Błaszczak, the Polish Defense Minister announced that Poland would send further T-72s on the Dnieper – it can be assumed that it means almost everything. Poland will equip the Ukrainian army with such an amount of them so that a brigade (30-40 pieces) can be formed. Aside from that we shall give Ukraine up to 100 rather obsolete BWP-1 infantry fighting vehicles.

T-72 is a Soviet-constructed tank In our county it was produced by “Bumar” in the following versions: T-72, T-72M and T-72M1D. It is armed with a 125 mm smoothbore canon, linked with a machine gun and a large-caliber anti-aircraft machine gun. Its modernized version, PT-91 “Twardy” is equipped with the new DRAWA fire control system as well as the ERAWA reactive armor. The Ukrainians are to obtain 30 exemplars of “Twardy”, as announced by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

Apart from them we shall hand over to the east 14 Leopard 2-type tanks of German production, in Poland in the 2A4 and 2A5 versions respectively. Manufactured since 1985 armed with a 120 mm smoothbore canon and 2 machines guns is way more modern than T-71. So far, such vehicles are come to our country from Canada (transported by air!) and most probably they will be sent to combat first, Polish TV channels have shown Ukrainian soldiers being trained at a Polish training ground.

It is to be emphasized though that these are all official figures. The Polish Army was making use of nearly 800 T-72s and over 200 PT-91s (but more than a hundred were modified T-72s). In 2009 we had respectively 584 and 232 such machines (as given in an answer to a parliamentary question). But later on the number of T-72s shrank to the official figure of 358 (unless there are some more in warehouses). Therefore we can assume that all of them will be passed on.

How many Krabs have we handed in?

Krab howizters are another important element of the armament we are sending to Ukraine. The AHS Krab is a Polish conversion of the British licensed turret system, mounted initially on the Polish chassis, the on the South Korean K9PL. The British L31A1 155mm canon fires two round per minute, and has a range of 40 kilometers. In 2016 the steel mill in Stalowa Wola (Huta Stalowa Wola S.A) signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense for the delivery of four squadron fire modules code-named “REGINA”. One squadron comprises 24 howitzers, all together our army was promised to be given 96 Krabs.

It is no secret that a number of those excellent canons was sent to Ukraine. How many? Our knowledge here is much more limited than in the case of the armor. Last May there were rumors about sending on the Dnieper 18 exemplars and about the Ukrainian part having commanded (for a payment fixed by the contract) 50 new Krabs. But it cannot be ruled out that we have already handed in more of them. Considerations were held on Twitter that the prompt purchase of similar, South Korean K9 howitzers (with chassis compatible with those in Krabs) could be a certain hint in this matter. 24 came to Poland last year, further 12 are to arrive over the next few days. Maybe it’s about reinforcing our units, which have already give their equipment?

Here by the way comes another aspect of the whole affair – what in exchange for the donated tanks and howitzers. In the case of the Krabs the matter is simple: in Poland we are able to construct 20-30 per year so we cannot easily meet our (and Ukrainian) needs. Hence the “shopping” in South Korea. They have been and will be criticized – because why would we buy Korean ones if he have our own, Polish? – but it should be remembered that the Krabs are anyway a result of Polish-Korean cooperation (they are equipped with Korean albeit “polonized” chassis). And perhaps their purchase will allow a wider collaboration in the field of arms production with the Koreans.

In return for the T-72 we are buying South Korean K2s whose development will be the “polonized” version of the K2PL. Last July a general contract was signed with Hyundai Rotem for 1,000 units: 180 till 2025, the rest in the following years (fabrication in Poland is also planned for). The first dozen or so have already arrived in our country. We are also awaiting the excellent American M1A1 Abramses – we are to obtain 16 of them and then we are planning a purchase of 250 of their newer version. Deliberation has been recently taking place in social media that it may be otherwise. As Jarosław Wolski, a well-known expert and analytic in all things military suggests, the Ministry of Defense is considering whether to buy a greater number of Arbamses while renouncing at least some Korean armor.

One thing is certain: this buy has to be costly. One K2 is worth 8,5 million dollars each; a much better Abrams is worth more or less the same. We shall buy the latter second-hand, so surely at a lower price. Is Washington going to compensate us somehow for our deliveries to Ukraine? Probably yes, but we don’t and won’t know that. Officially speaking for 116 vehicles along with a great deal of additional equipment we shall pay 1,4 billion dollars, out of the American military help should constitute 200 million (14%). But maybe the Americans will throw in something? More maybe they already have?...

Poland being a “hub” for Ukraine

But apart from handing over her own equipment Poland is playing another role in helping the Ukrainian army. It is above all that their soldiers are being trained here (as written abobe on the example of Leopard tanks) and also above all the international aid for Ukraine is flowing through here; we’ve become a “hub” for the whole NATO.

Anyway, it may sound paradoxical but the war has made an unexpectedly positive impact on the trade with our eastern partner – the trade exchange has dramatically increased. Over the first ten months of 2022 the Polish export to Ukraine had grown by 48%, as compared to the respective period in 2021! It also has to be stressed that these figures do not comprise armament. All that is causing tie-ups on the borders and this is why, inter alia, we are at the point of opening this new border crossing in Malhowice-Niżankowice to the south of Przemyśl (it’s going to be fully ready in 2024).

It all means that although Poland bears enormous costs linked with the Russo-Ukrainian war, especially by renouncing cheaper Russian fuels and letting in a great number of refugees, we are also measurably benefiting from it. Apart from the radical improvement of our image in the world and of our relations with Ukraine (also in the field of economic partnership) it’s also about prompt modernization of the Polish army. The old equipment is sent to the battlefield while the new on its way here or else we have to wait for it.

Surely, the evaluation of all that will be possible only in a few years. Much information is classified, some other is hardly accessible. But one day, already in more peaceful times, there will be a need to do it.

– Piotr Kościński
– Translated by Dominik Szczęsny-Kostanecki

TVP WEEKLY. Editorial team and jornalists