There’s more intensive discussion in Russian circles and among western specialists about issues concerning the exchange of power in the higher levels of Russian politics. It is said that the failure of the blitzkrieg on Ukraine has undermined Putin’s authority. Furthermore, that the country is not prepared for long-term economic isolation or for the transformation into a Chinese colony as a source of raw materials. In addition, more voices have been heard concerning the failing health of the tenant in the Kremlin. We may shortly expect a communiqué in newspaper headlines that may confirm the thesis-although Putin may have indeed started the war, he would not be in a position to conclude it.

The British tabloid newspaper, the Sun rehashed, at the end of April, the question of Vladimir Putin’s alleged life-threatening disease. The Russian president, it continued, is suffering from a form of blood cancer and was due for an operation in May. The American periodical the New Lines Magazine only recently on the market, but one which has carved out an international reputation on its in-depth coverage of both the end of American intervention in Afghanistan and the current war in Ukraine, published a lengthy article on the state of Putin’s health. The author used sources from Boris Karpichkov, former security services officer who defected to the British. The article stated that the president was suffering from Parkinson’s disease as well as a range of serious ailments including dementia.

Toilet habits

Further revelations about the health of Putin were given by noted film director Oliver Stone, the producer of a four-part propaganda film, that came out on 2017, and which was a record of conversations with the president of Russia. Stone appeared on the podcast of Moscow-born, American expert on new technology and popular science, Lex Fridman. He was asked if the decision to embark on aggression against Ukraine was a conscious act of madness on the part of the Russian president. Stone replied “Don’t forget that Putin has cancer and thinks he has defeated it. But he was isolated during the time of Covid 19. He could have lost contact with people. I am speculating and I can’t say for certain.”

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  The thoughts of the American director fell on fertile ground. Especially in the views of the world looking for an answer to the question as to why Putin had been obsessively avoiding contact with the outside world, or has met only those who has been tested for Covid repeatedly and why there was a huge table at which to sit and hold conversation.

Shortly afterwards, the Kremlin disclosed a short recording of a conversation between Putin and minister Sergei Shoigu, during which he, Putin, gripped the corner of the table throughout. Many specialists concluded that this was meant to show that the Russian president wanted to mask the fact he was suffering from Parkinson’s disease. The was understood from a declaration by spokesman Dmitry Peskov to the effect that his chief is in rude health, as confirmation that “something was indeed afoot”. Then in the middle of May, there were further disclosures on the subject.

The Ukrainian internet portals relying on intelligence sources started to report that Putin may indeed have undergone an operation on May 16. His stand-in for a few days was to have been Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the National Security Council. The journalists noted the fall in media activity of Putin during the period. This reflected the experience of the past few months that had shown ups and downs. It was intensive at one point followed by the president disappearing from media appearances as though he was undergoing a period of accelerated rehabilitation.

The French Paris Match ran a somewhat strange article at the beginning of June concerning the “toilet ablution habits ” of Vladimir Putin himself. He used his own bathroom and the security detail which accompanies him scrupulously polices the the “bodily fluids and solid waste” of the Russian president thus ensuring that it would not fall into the wrong hands. They use special containers into which Putin’s solid and liquid waste, is specially packed . Putin is accompanied at all times by the security agents who go where only he can go.

Farida Rustamova, an independent Russian journalist, stated that within the structure of the presidential security services there is a special section dedicated to toilet duties. The whole process of handling “sensitive payloads” is not a new one. It has been known for a number of years. The latest revelations have prompted doctors to speculate in the media that this was to hide the fact that Putin was undergoing some sort of pharmaceutical treatment or that he was taking a some specific substances that show he is suffering from some form of cancer or a chronic disease, for example Parkinson’s.

The War Party

Speculation concerning Putin’s health comes up regularly, every few months or so, in the world’s media. But now such information has reached receptive ears. Many journalists and experts are searching for the reason why Putin had erred in starting such an ill prepared operation against Ukraine. The blitzkrieg had failed, and this in turn has led to the formulation of the “mad dictator” theory, the isolation of Putin himself who is locked away in a bunker in the Urals and who rarely receives visitors. Speculation has also been ignited as to the factional in-fighting for the legacy that will be left when Vladimir Vladimirovitch departs this life. Some of the recent comments made by the president notably the comparison to Tsar Peter the Great, Russia’s great historic leaders, have only heightened the discussion. Some commentators have stated that his goes to show that he regards himself in grand historical terms, uninvolved in and above humdrum politics.

Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian political scientist living in France and regarded as a well-informed specialist in the rivalries within the Russian power elite, wrote recently that from the many leaks she has obtained there emerges a picture of an ongoing fratricidal conflict between Kremlin factions. In her opinion, the deciding factor as to who will succeed Putin will be at the moment when he quits the scene.

If a change should occur now, it will be a greater opportunity for the “war party”, created by the adherents of the policy of continuing the special operation in Ukraine and who wish to go further and throw down the gauntlet to the entire West. This is influenced by the conviction, generally held in Russia, that Moscow is currently winning, buttressed by the high opinion ratings for Vladimir Putin, peaking since February 24 2022. In the “war party”, this is taken as the support of the nation for the policy itself.

If, however, Putin were to govern for the foreseeable future, Stanovaya maintains the chances can increase for the “peace party”, the supporters of the ending of hostilities, conditional of course (and one that Russia can regard as victory) as well as the start of a policy that could rebuild bridges, economic ones in particular with the West.

Andrei Perec, a Russian journalist and an expert in the Carnegie Center think tank, currently writing on the Latvian internet portal Meduza, states that the leader of the “war party” is actually Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the National Defence Council. Dmitry Medvedev the former president and prime minister can also be included in this group, also Vyacheslav Volodin, the secretary to the Duma or Parliament, deputy Kremlin administration chief Sergei Kiriyenko and the chairman of the United Russia party Andrey Turchak. They have all committed to continuing the war in Ukraine until final victory is achieved. They support the incorporation into Russia of those areas taken over after February 24 and a hard line policy regarding the West even if this means ratcheting up international tensions.

Party of Peace

There is also the so-called “peace party” composed of oligarchs such as Oleg Deripaska, who had publicly called for an end to this “senseless war”, warned Russia of an economic crisis three times worse than during the “Yeltsin troubles” of the post-USSR period. In mid-April, at a meeting of the elite, social-meeting forum the Stolypin Club he presented a manifesto that called for a “three to five fold” decrease in security service numbers, whose current omnipresent power is strangling Russia.

He is not the only member of the Russian business elite that has recently emerged in the criticism of the situation in Russia and Putin’s policy. Alexei Mordashov the owner of steel company Severstal and one of the richest Russians," whose fortune is estimated at 22 billion dollars almost “broke down in tears” at the recent Petersburg Economic Forum, when he commented on the Russian condition and economic perspectives connected to the Ukrainian war, according to Russian media.

Perec includes Herman Gref, chief of Sberbank the largest in Russia, in this “peace party”. Also Mikhail Kostin the chief of Vneshtorgbank who built up his political influence in the 1990s. He had supervised the transfer of the fortunes of the Russian elite, keeping his rivals, the brothers Yuri and Mikhail Kovalchuk in the shade. The first of these is regarded as Putin’s personal banker. He controls a large media holding company in whose portfolio the Isvestia newspaper as well as some commercial television stations. But above all , as Mikhail Zygar wrote he is almost a daily guest of the Russian president.

Sergey Chermezov, Putin’s friend from their KGB Dresden days and the head of the gigantic Russian armaments concern Rostech created a furore in the Russian media recently. He stated that the policy of replacing imported components and products by Russian equivalents has been a total fiasco. No modern economy can exist without relations with more sophisticated partners.

It was understood as a critique of the theory launched by the “war party” which had called on the building of Russia into a fortress and the establishment of the economy on autarchic, independent lines. This is unsurprising as a few years ago he had publicly criticised the political monopoly of the United Russia party of power. He suggested that it would be better if representatives of true democracy could be in Parliament.

The Quiet Ones

Those who understand the political infighting on the summits of power think that beside these two “parties” that up to now have not started any concrete actions to achieve power, but are biding their time until Putin leaves or nominates a successor, there is a third party-the group of silent politicians such as the mayor of Moscow Sergey Sobyanin. It’s difficult to ascribe this man to either of the two aforementioned formations. They wish to place themselves on the side lines to be accepted by the representatives of both political currents in Russian politics.

Sobyanin visited and talked with the prime minister of the Luhansk People’s Republic Leonid Pasechnik. Even Moscow took over the rebuilding of the newly conquered territories in this province. This he was pressurised to do by Putin himself. He did do without too much enthusiasm but the anti- Putin manifesto hailed by Deripaska was published by the Niezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper, whose chief-editor stood at the head of the electoral committee of Sobyanin during the last Moscow local elections.

In the ranking of potential Putin successors, Sobyanin is highlighted as the a likely candidate. Others include Sergey Kirienko, a young 59-year old but quite staid deputy chief of the Kremlin administration. He does not just supervise internal matters but lately as Dmitry Kozak, the person responsible for the Ukraine policy and the near abroad experienced a dip in reputation, he took him under his wing. Fifty-eight year old Vyacheslav Volodin does not hide his ambition either. He initiated the process of passing a new Russian constitution which curtailed Putin’s term of office.

Others, very active publicly recently include Dmitry Medvedev and “arch strongman” Nikolai Patrushev, the close personal friend of Putin. He is connected with talk about taking over the reins after a possible departure by the current Russian president. Sceptics point out that he is older than Putin and had previously suffered from cancer. This does not necessarily form a convincing argument against his bid. In the times of the USSR during the leaderships of Yuri Andropov and Konstantin Chernenko a leader was chosen in a caretaker capacity at a time when the reshuffling of power was unclear and when it was known that their tenures would not last for too long due to their advancing stages of ill health.

There is another theory. This has been advanced by Oleg Zdanov, a Ukrainian military reserve officer and a current popular You Tube blogger and star. He thinks that Putin will not die sooner but will plan out the transfer of power in Russia, one that will resemble the Kazakhstan model. He will remain as head of the National Council which will be he supreme organ of power. The leadership of United Russia will be taken over by his daughter Katerina Tichonova. The presidency will go to Patrushev, but not to Nikolai but to his son Dmitry. He is currently in Mikhail Mishtustin’s government as Minister of Agriculture. He is not just young and ready to lead the country, but could emerge as the true victor in the war in Ukraine.

If, as was mentioned some time ago by Margarita Simonyan, the chief of Russia Today, the spectre of world famine and immigration into Europe from North Africa will persuade the West into renewing amicable relations with Russia, then this will be in large part due to Moscow’s weaponised use of food, itself the responsibility of the young Patrushev.

–Marek Budzisz

TVP WEEKLY. Editorial team and jornalists

–Translated by Jan Darasz