The opposition should find a candidate that would be able to defeat Recep Erdogan – says Ali Babacan, founder and leader of the Democracy and Progress Party. (DEVA). There wouldn’t be anything unusual about these words – as Babacan’s small and relatively young party is in opposition – if it hadn’t been for the fact they came from the mouth of a man who has long been one of the incumbent Turkish president’s closest associates. Together with Erdogan he established the Justice and Development Party (AKP), was minister of economy, negotiator with the EU and deputy prime minister. It’s easy to see that Babacan’s party refers to the AKP in name, though its program is to counterbalance it. DEVA means “remedy” in Turkish.

Ali Babacan is not the only one. Interestingly, it’s the party leaders not the second-row activists who have cut themselves off from Erdogan. Abdullah Gul, for instance: an old political brother-in-arms, AKP co-founder, most faithful of the faithful because he gave up his seat as prime minister. Thanks to him, on March 14, Recep Erdogan will be able to celebrate the 20th anniversary of his rule. Gul’s loyalty was later rewarded with the post of president, as which he did Erdogan priceless favors supporting all of his ideas and concepts. The idyll had lasted till the moment when Erdogan, having Gul’s ambition for nothing, decided to become president himself. Then the split occurred.

SIGN UP TO OUR PAGE Or, let’s take Ahmet Davutoglu. He joined Erdogan’s team when AP was already a party of power first as its chief adviser, later – as head of diplomacy, finally – as party leader and prime minister. He was regarded as a strong point of Erdogan’s group. The neo-Ottoman policy of strengthening ties between the countries where the empire once stretched, is his original concept. The rupture came when Erdogan, as head of state began to limit the prime minister’s powers. Davutoglu resigned and several years later formed his own grouping – the Future Party.

The six principles of Kemalism

Why am I commencing the story of Erdogan’s 20 years in power with his opponents? Because it shows his important characteristics, such as the ability to gather people around him and, at the same time, to get rid of them without scruples. Admittedly, the feeling of gratitude doesn’t belong to the politician’s most regarded values but a certain minimum of it – proof that despite everything they still have human traits – is welcome. And Erdogan owes that much to hardly anyone but Abdullah Gul; maybe to Fethullah Gulen, an Islamic cleric, thanks to whom – or, to be more precise: thanks to whose connections in many influential milieus, starting off with the judiciary – he managed to consolidate his authority in the first, difficult years. Now he considers Gulen who, in the meantime, left Turkey and settled down in the US, as a mortal enemy. However he needn’t worry about Andullah Gul as the former ally has completely withdrawn from politics and poses no threat to him.

It is to this that we should add ruthlessness, also in following the charted course – which, on the other hand, means consistence in pursuing the goal. It’s undoubtedly an advantage, just as is the skillful definition of goals and the distribution of their realization over time (even if these aims don’t necessarily have to please us). In addition there is patience, perseverance and caution. Without those at the beginning of his rule Recep Erdogan might have fallen in a battle against powerful Kemalists, faithful to the vision of Turkey presented by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. In turn, if he hadn’t broken with the old canons, he couldn’t now think of becoming a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. And that’s what he much cares about.

The Kemalist foundations of Turkey consist of six so-called Atatürk’s arrows (principles): republicanism, secularism, nationalism, reformism, rule of the people, and etatism. And although, for example, etatism, in the face of the realities of the economy, lost its raison d’être a long time ago, some arrows were indisputable until Erdogan’s times.

Let’s take secularism. In the republic created in the early 1920s, there was no place for religion in public life, and not because Islam, according to people close to it, was completely indifferent to Kemal. The thing is that Islam was one of the pillars of the Ottoman Empire. The sultan was also the caliph, the leader of the Muslims. If new Turkey was to break with the empire, it had to break with Islam as well.

Kurds, army and scarves

Over the first years after the AKP came to power, when Turkey’s life was still dominated by the Kemalists – starting with the president, through the judiciary, media and education, to the army – Recep Erdogan acted very carefully. He wouldn’t talk about the transformation of the state or the role of Islam, not even about global aspirations. He administered more than governed, continued the policy of the previous authorities, and did not undermine Turkey’s place alongside the West and in NATO. One of the flagship goals was Turkey’s accession to the European Union. Thus, the start of accession talks in October 2005 was an unquestionable success. They continue to this day, because formally they have not been broken, but practically they have. And no one, not even Erdogan himself, has any expectations of them anymore.

Today, it is hard to doubt that he needed talks with the EU mainly for internal use. Erdogan killed several birds with one stone. He showed his fellow citizens that Europe treated Turkey under his rule with more respect than the Turkey of his predecessors (although Turkey was granted candidate status under Bülent Ecevit in 1999), and he himself received a kind of moral certificate. European politicians gave it to him with full conviction. In Erdogan, they saw a politician of a new era, one that would cleanse Turkey of the demons of the past, such as excessive military influence or complete denial of the existence of the Kurds as a separate nation. An Islamist? Oh, by no means.

Erdogan skillfully reinforced this image by referring to human rights, minority rights and women’s rights. Consent to the use of the Kurdish language, even limited, in the media or education was indeed a step forward, as was the later acceptance of the creation of the Kurdish party (today one of the main opposition parties). Recognition of the national aspirations of the Kurds was out of the question, and still is not, but at that time in Europe it was believed that Erdogan was entering a new path. Not to mention when he introduced civilian control over the army, which he pacified and stripped of influence with trials and accusations. What in Europe was perceived as a sign of democratization, in fact meant getting rid of opponents on the way to taking full power.

As for the emancipation of women, Atatürk paved the way here, granting women the right to vote as early as in 1930 (in local elections, four years later in general elections) and opening access to education for them. Erdogan’s rule brought nothing in this matter, and the ideas he came up with – such as the statutory submission of women, as a weaker being, to their husbands – went in the opposite direction; however, have not entered into force.

In Erdogan’s version, concern for women’s rights boiled down to a war over headscarves, which since the 1980s (the ban was introduced after the military coup of 1980) were not allowed to be worn in state schools, universities and offices. It was the first serious battleground between the Kemalists and Erdogan and his party, marked by mass protests at the time and the closure of universities to students wearing headscarves. The conflict reached the highest echelons: when the Kemalist Ahmet Necdet Sezer was the head of state, AKP notables were invited to the ceremony at the Presidential Palace without their wives, because almost all of them covered their hair.

Milestones

This first open, though still carefully managed, conflict is one of the milestones of Erdogan’s rule. Not only is the matter not trivial, but it has the importance of a symbol – a symbol of the presence of Islam in public life. The day when in October 2013 four female deputies appeared in parliament in headscarves was considered a historic moment in the AKP. “Everyone should respect the decision of our sisters” – prime minister Erdogan himself said with appreciation. And it was indeed a breakthrough. When 14 years earlier MP Merve Kavakci came in a hijab to the first session of parliament after the elections, she was not allowed to take the oath and was asked to leave the chamber. She was also stripped of her Turkish citizenship, which she regained only years later.

Who knows, perhaps the most important milestone was the first one: becoming the mayor of Istanbul. It was the year 1994, the local elections were won by the Islamic group Refah, the Welfare Party, and the real sensation was its victory in Ankara and Istanbul. Recep Tayyip Erdogan had become the star and hope of the party. Refah’s leader, the old and experienced Necmettin Erbakan, was to become prime minister a few years later, was to resign under pressure from Kemalist generals, and the party was to be outlawed. Refah’s fate has become a warning for Erdogan.

So is the second milestone: incarceration In 1998, he was sentenced to 10 months in prison for reciting in public an old poem with Islamic overtones, served four. In the eyes of supporters of Islamism, this did not harm him at all.

Third stone: the Justice and Development Party, founded in the summer of 2001, conservative, as claimed by Erdogan not Islamic, to protect it from the wrath of the Kemalists. A year later, in the fall of 2002, the AKP won 34 percent of the general vote, more than half of the seats in parliament and takes power. Erdogan, as a convicted person, couldn’t stand as a candidate, but when the ban was lifted, he won a seat in a by-election. Abdullah Gul ceded the post of prime minister to him.

Next stones: 2005: negotiations with the European Union began. 2007: Abdullah Gul becomes president, which de facto, though not de jure, gives Erdogan the freedom to rule. There are huge demonstrations all over Turkey in defense of the state’s secularism. Military commanders warn Erdogan.

2008 – 2011: Ergenekon scandal – trials of military commanders, journalists of the Kemalist media (among others, Ilhan Selcuk, aged 83, former head of the “Cumhuriyet” newspaper is detained), scientists, university rectors, accused of participating in secret organizations seeking to overthrow the government. Several hundred people appeared before the court; severe sentences were passed. 10% of the command staff went to prison. AKP and its leader got rid of their most dangerous opponent.

2013: in the spring, violent protests in Istanbul, triggered by the plan to develop the Gezi Park area, in the autumn, allegations of corruption against several ministers, but also Erdogan and his family. In an eavesdropped conversation, the Prime Minister and his son discussed the need to hide $30 million. Erdogan claimed that Fethullah Gülen was behind everything.

2014: Recep Erdogan became president. He changed the nature of the office, which ceased to be a ceremonial function. A year later, a referendum was held on extending the prerogatives of the president. Turks are for. In 2018, Erdogan was re-elected with full powers.

2016, July 16: military coup d'état. An unsuccessful one. Erdogan was saved by the resistance of thousands of ordinary people. He accused Gülen of organizing the coup. Since then, he has been trying to persuade the American authorities to extradite the priest, and the authorities of other countries to close down the network of schools that Gülen runs around the world. To no avail.

2019: The ancient Byzantine Temple of the Holy Wisdom, Hagia Sophia in Istanbul, became a mosque again, as it did in Ottoman times. This is happening with the full approval, and perhaps even with the quiet inspiration of Recep Erdogan, who of course came to the first prayers. During his 20 years of rule, hundreds of mosques have been built in Turkey. On a hill above Istanbul, Turkey’s largest mosque, Camlica, has been erected, with a capacity of 63,000 faithful.

Before centenary celebration

Perhaps the most important milestone for Erdogan, however, would be victory in the presidential election, which is to be held in June. If he remains in office, he will receive all the splendor of the centenary celebrations of the Turkish Republic, which will take place on October 29, the anniversary of its proclamation. A follower of Islam and Islamism who has, to some extent, managed to question the work of its secularist creator, Mustafa Kemal Pasha, the victor of Gallipoli – what a satisfaction! It is obvious and all too evident that Erdogan has long been committed to this and that he desires it very much.

In the first years of his rule, when the Kemalists, thanks to the president, retained some power and still had great influence in society, Recep Erdogan never went so far as to criticize Atatürk. As his power expanded, his respect for the founder of the republic diminished. Erdogan did not always appear at the celebrations because, as he said, it was not necessary, he already called the republic “the work of the two drunkards” (the latter was Ismet Inönü, Kemal’s closest associate), he already transformed the Cankay Atatürk presidential palace into the gigantic White Palace in Ankara, one of the largest buildings in the world.

Republic Day was always Atatürk’s day – when he was alive and participated in the celebrations himself, and when after his death (he died in 1938) only the greatness of his work was honored. The celebrations have been held in front of Atatürk's Mausoleum in Ankara for years. I wonder if Erdogan, confident in his own achievements, would dare to move them to another place – one where you can celebrate the republic, forgetting about its creator. Maybe to Istanbul? Although Istanbul has nothing to do with the founding of the republic or with Kemal’s war for the existence of Turkey, this may be its great advantage.

However, everything depends on the voters, and they are increasingly reluctant. Erdogan is being buried by the recent, tragic earthquake – ineffective, slow rescue operation, but also neglectful construction, which caused many buildings to collapse. However, if for 20 years he has been able to cope with very difficult situations – after the Gezi Park case, after the coup d’état, after corruption suspicions – it is possible that this time he will also perform a miracle. And I’m sure he'll do his best.

– Teresa Stylinska
– Translated by Dominik Szczęsny-Kostanecki

TVP WEEKLY. Editorial team and jornalists