Turkey remains one of those states that counts on the international stage. But does this mean, in the words of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, that it could be a ‘beacon of hope’ for the world? The Turkish president stated that its foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, would visit Moscow and Kyiv with these words ringing in his ears. Turkey regards the visit as a mediation mission or at least a pre-mediation mission. It means much to Turkey to take up the challenge, and not just at this particular time.

An attempt to rescue peace is indeed a noble way to behave, even the example of the Munich Agreement signed by Neville Chamberlain and Edouard Daladier but with only spectacularly short- term results. Turkey, in the face of the escalating Russo-Ukrainian crisis, has been offering its services for some time. But the temptation remains to rise to this kind of challenge and, with some divine help, reap a spectacular success.

WAR IN UKRAINE

Can Turkey play the role of mediator? It’s difficult to say at the present time. But from the Turkish point of view at least, things are going better than expected. Turkey did after all, host the first high level Russo-Ukrainian talks at foreign ministerial not just advisor level.

Sergey Lavrov and Dmytro Kuleba spoke in Antalya on the 15th day of the conflict at a diplomatic forum, but without result. However, the Turkish side did have some cause for satisfaction. Observers at any rate noted that although Ukraine was inclined to accept Turkey in the role of mediator, Russia would be in no mood to agree.

Five visits, twenty talks.

Foreign minister Cavusoglu spent two whole days engaging in shuttle diplomacy. On 16th March, he was in Moscow; the following day in Kyiv. No doubt he passed on what he heard in Moscow to his Ukrainian hosts. Had he heard anything of note? How did the Ukrainians react and did he put himself forward as mediator? More than likely. But the details remain classified.

Turkish authorities attempted to create the efforts to prolong constant motion in diplomatic circles. “Daily Sabah”, the English language, government supporting daily newspaper, reported with gusto on the recent meetings and conversations, summing up as it stated that could spice up any headache.

President Erdogan himself hosted five important leaders in Ankara recently. Among them were President Andrzej Duda and Israeli President Isaac Herzog. He met NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg personally, and spoke by telephone with more than twenty other leaders. The latter included some of the most influential individuals- US president Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Ursula Von Der Leyen, President of the EU Commission, and regional leaders such as from Azerbaijan and Moldova.

And it didn’t stop there. Erdogan, from the very start of the conflict has been in constant contact with Volodymyr Zelensky (three conversations) and Vladimir Putin (two conversations). He is reported to have said to Putin ‘Together, we’ll pave the road to peace’.

They spoke during the evening g of the 23rd, a few hours before the invasion although the details are unknown. But the circumstances were that Putin was to visit Turkey even at the end of February. This was part of the idea of symmetry that is so valued by the Turkish authorities. This was by way of a reply to the visit of Erdogan in Kyiv at the beginning of February. Cavusoglu was still in Moscow when during Wednesday evening, President Erdogan rang President Zelensky confirming that Turkey would stand on the side of dialogue.

All that this overlong newspaper article underlined was the scale of current Turkish possibilities. The “Daily Sabah” stated that Turkey is among the group of countries that are key to being able to effect a cease fire because of their mediation potential. It stated the ‘Turkey has good relations with both parties and its priorities are peace and stability in the Black Sea basin and the entire region’.

Its reports on Erdogan activities are couched in superlatives, but this doesn’t mean that they are inaccurate. Turkey truly does have reason to care about peace and stability in the region. It really does have good relations in many areas with Russia and Ukraine (see below). It could indeed act as mediator, undoubted by the newspaper. Each imbalance in its relations could harm its ‘wide interests’ as underlined by the president.

On the sides and in the centre

Turkey has not joined in the sanctions against Russia although formally it was not obligated, not being an EU member. But it does have candidate status and its presence in the sanctions action would have been warmly received. Does Turkey supply Ukraine with weaponry? Openly not. But clandestinely? Perhaps, but we don’t know for certain.

Oleksii Reznikov, Ukrainian defence minister, stated at the beginning of March that Ukraine would be taking receipt of the latest consignment of Turkish Bayraktar combat drones. Obviously, Turkey failed to confirm this. Turkish media thought that this was a form of minor provocation, an attempt to drive a wedge between Turkey and Russia.

Bayraktar drones have long been on the Ukrainian shopping list. This agreement and especially the latest contract, has angered Russia. It had been signed during the latest visit to Kyiv by President Erdogan. Turkey is attempting not to exacerbate the situation, even to the extent of trying to scale down delivery numbers. It’s no accident that it is trying to defuse the situation not to give Moscow any argument that it is arming Ukraine.

Neither has Turkey closed off its airspace to Russian aircraft nor has it suspended its own air links with Russia. Turkish Airlines continue regular flights five times per day, between Moscow and Istanbul. The airlines carry, amongst others, Russians who have decided to leave their country.

The Dardanelles and Bosphorus have been closed to warships too, but without effect and only from the fourth day. This decision came about as a result of the articles of the Convention of Montreux in 1936 that regulated shipping through the Straits.

In declaring their decision, the foreign minister tressed that Turkey was acting in accordance with the convention but he failed to mention any Ukrainian efforts to attempt to close the straits during the first days of the conflict. The decision applies also to other shipping, including NATO not just Russian, that could as commentators say, prevent supplies delivered to Ukraine by sea should circumstances dictate.

Turkey wants to be in the centre of attention, but on its own terms. The times when it was a unstinting ally of the West in all matters are over as its conduct in the Gulf War of the 1990s showed. Its pro-Western armed forces command had been removed effectively. Erdogan has Turkish interests at heart naturally, but he sees them differently and treats them differently from his predecessors.

Oil, wheat, tourists and weapons

The wariness of Turkey in pursuing its interests in manoeuvring between Russia and Ukraine are not just dictated by economic imperatives. There are also strategic interests at play. In this regard it is energy that matters. Russian oil and natural gas form over 40 percent of Turkey’s needs. Furthermore, the Russians are building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant in the province of Mersin.

W kategorii interesów strategicznych mieści się także Syria, gdzie Turcja jest skazana na współpracę z Rosją, by hamować aspiracje Kurdów. Niedopuszczenie do powstania choćby zalążka państwa kurdyjskiego to dla Turcji sprawa o wadze fundamentalnej.

Syria figures in its strategic interests, and here Turkey cooperates with Russia by necessity to dampen Kurdish ambitions: not allowing the establishment of any sort of Kurdish state is of fundamental strategic importance for the Turks.

Ukraine has nothing to offer the Turks in this regard, but in other spheres decidedly it does. Turkey buys grain from both the Ukraine and Russia. Russia supplies 80 percent and Ukraine only 15 percent. Turkey exports fruit and vegetables to both and Turkish construction firms are active in both countries too.

Tourism is one of its most profitable sectors. Russians and Ukrainians are present as few others are, and their favourite destination is Turkey. Out of the 25 million annual tourists, Russian and Ukrainian visitors constitute 27 percent of those who holiday on the Mediterranean coast resorts. Their absence will be felt in the hotels and restaurants as well as dent the national exchequer. The longer the war goes on the more these fears will increase.

Caution seems to be the best course of action for Turkey. Three weeks after the start of hostilities the overall balance looks positive. Manoeuvring between Russia Ukraine and NATO is proceeding at pace. And Turkey may succeed in maintaining good relations with Ukraine, not worsening those with Russia and repairing those with NATO, that in recent years worsened somewhat due to Turkish actions in no small part. Turkey became involved in conflict with the USA concerning the purchase of the Russian S-400 rocket system. Washington imposed sanctions. There was the matter of Fethullah Gulen Erdogan’s personal enemy, or the Syrian imbroglio. Erdogan found himself on a collision course with certain western European countries on the question of his championing the cause of Muslim immigration.

Secondly, there have been glowing evaluations on the Bayraktar drones which have proved extremely effective so far. Battlefield success is likely to translate into future orders. It won’t damage Turkish reputation nor its ailing manufacturing economy. The Turks are very sensitive on the point of image, perhaps oversensitive. The president’s family interests is sure to benefit too. The Baykar production company that makes the drones belongs to the family of Selcuk Bayraktar, Erdogan’s son-in-law. No-one seriously takes the claim that this is a purely commercial transaction.

A different calibre of conflict.

Thirdly, it is perfectly possible, but we do not know just how much, that Russia will accept the offer of Turkey hosting the mediation conference in Ankara between Putin and Zelensky. This will be a very prestigious event for the president.

Turkey seems to regard the matter of mediation as its speciality. It offers such services in many conflicts; between the Israelis and Palestinians, the Azeris and Armenians and lately in Bosnia. But these have not been taken up as Turkey is regarded as partisan especially when Muslim interests are involved.

But these are limited conflicts in character even if Israel for instance, even goes beyond its regional implications. The Russo-Ukrainian war is completely different in nature. But Turkey is not the sole possible mediator on offer. Israel is a competitor. Its prime minister Naftali Bennet was the only one who flew to Russia and met with Putin. President Isaac Herzog visited Turkey at the same time, and was welcomed with honours; the first such visit since 2008 seemed to promise more cooperation. Previous mutual relations had been limited. This seems to be speculation however.

Will Turkey support Ukraine as many think, as it is not in its interest to strengthen Russia? Does it not want to advertise this fact either so as not to harm its interests? Possibly. You have to remember that Turkey has many historic and emotional ties with Ukraine. We must remember for instance, the plight of the Crimean Tatars, whose champion Turkey feels to be to this day. Turkey does not recognise the annexation of Crimea and never will as its authorities state. Political calculation is vital but in Turkey the emotional dimension should not be underestimated. Not even today.

– Teresa Stylińska
–Translated by Jan Darasz