Moreover, of Belarus’s neighbours, it is Russia that has the most influence on this country. Alexander Lukashenka secured himself against Russian special services with a sophisticated network of his own services, but in the case of his death Vladimir Putin will certainly do everything to ensure that the Belarusian president’s successor obliges him. Or at least that he doesn’t make attempts to abandon the idea of merging the two countries.

Except that the departure of a dictator comes as a shock in every country. Usually a power struggle begins and its outcome can be unpredictable. It is also to be remembered that in the case of Belarus, after the 2020 elections, the society showed an unexpected strength by mobilising itself and organising huge protests against electoral fraud. The protests were suppressed by force but it is difficult to imprison the majority of a 10-milion population. It cannot be ruled out that the shock of the dictator’s departure will trigger a huge wave of demonstrations.

In late 2010 the author of this article, along with three other Polish journalists, interviewed Lukashenka. The talk broke the record for length – four hours and a half! The dictator (that’s how he introduced himself: “I’m the last dictator in Europe”) was asked if it was good that he ruled the country all by himself – because what would happen, if he was taken ill? He replied that it was a terrible situation, that Belarus needs democracy and needs political parties but he “wouldn’t found them himself”. Undoubtedly he was right only over the next dozen or so tears he did nothing to make the situation change.

Really ill?

But first of all we have to ask ourselves one question: is Alexander Lukashenka really ill? For there have been suggestions that we are dealing with a test or a trial, that he was pretending to find out how his men in Minsk would behave. This, however, is unlikely.

The course of events seems to confirm the thesis about the dictator’s health problems. On May 9 Moscow held its traditional (albeit rather modest this year) parade on the occasion of the Victory Day. Alexander Lukashenka was also present there – as he has been for many years. But he looked bad and had a bandage on his hand, was unable to walk a few hundred metres to lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier together with the Russian president Vladimir Putin and the heads of state of several countries (presidents of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and the prime minister of Armenia) – he had to be driven there by car (it was a small electric vehicle). Nor was he present at the ceremonial breakfast for international guests. Then he returned to Minsk and, contrary to earlier announcements, for the first time in 29 years he didn’t give a traditional speech on Victory Square (Ploshcha Pyeramohi). Prime minister Raman Halouchenka read out his message instead. After that, on May 14 he didn’t participate in the celebration of the Belarusian flag, coat of arms (sic!), and anthem.

Eventually, the news of the dictator’s illness was confirmed by Konstantin Zatulin, deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma’s Committee on the Commonwealth of Independent States. – There is nothing unusual about it, it’s not coronavirus, he simply got sick… and certainly needs rest – he announced. Zatulin is a figure of no particular importance, but these words of his were quoted around the media. But apart from him, none of the official representatives of the Belarusian of Russian authorities said anything about Lukashenka’s possible illness.

In authoritarian states leaders’ illnesses are usually not talked about. The leader must be strong. Not surprisingly this also the case in Belarus. Lukashenka appeared in public on May 15 – he was shown at a meeting with defence minister Alexander Khrenin and military commanders. But he looked terrible and had difficulty speaking. His hand was bandaged only it was the other one – conceivably to hide the cannula through which an intravenous drip can be given.

Sick – with what?

Andriy Yusov, head of the press service of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, also spoke about the Belarusian dictator. – Yes, there is information about Lukashenka’s health problems. But we won’t discuss them in detail for various reasons. Besides, Putin’s health is a much more interesting subject of study for Ukraine and the whole world than talking about the state of the Belarusian dictator, Yusov said.

The Belarusian opposition has been talking about the potential disease for a long time. – Lukashenka’s health has been deteriorating for more than a year. We see that he is aging both physically and morally, it’s time to send him to the antique shop. We don’t now, what exactly is wrong with him. His entire treatment is kept secret. Is this some terrible cancer? Or maybe just a simple flu? That’s what people will be thinking. Any change in his health is a state secret, said Franak Viachorka, adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leader of the Belarusian opposition.

Opinions vary. Pavel Latushka, one of the opposition leaders, mentioned that it could be an infectious-allergic myocarditis. In addition, the dictator has problems with his legs, especially the knee joint, which “requires a quick solution”, as well as a bad spine.

In turn, Andrei Sannikau, the coordinator of the “European Belarus” campaign, told the Ukrainian media that in Minsk they would try to “bring Lukashenka to order”. “It’s possible they’ll use stand-ins (lookalikes). Dictators consider the use of stand-ins as an acknowledgment of belonging to some upper class. It is known that Lukashenka, who has gained a lot of weight, suddenly appears on the ice, slim and in a hockey outfit, trying to convince everyone that it’s him who is playing – he pointed out.

It should be remembered that Alexander Lukashenka has been ruling for nearly thirty years and has enormous power – one can say that he controls everything important that happens in Belarus. But power also comes with responsibility. So he is under a lot of stress all the time. This could not but affect his health. And he can’t afford the luxury of being sick. No important decisions will be made without his participation. And the members of his team – the prime minister, ministers, heads of districts – will be afraid to decide anything on their own. Lukashenka has no deputy; the prime minister is only executing his orders.

Is the dictator’s rule coming to an end?

We do not know how serious Lukashenka’s health is. But if it turns out that it is, or if Lukashenka simply dies, the Belarusian constitution, as amended last year, should be applied. Its Article 88 explains what happens if the office of the president becomes vacant or the head of state cannot function normally. His duties are then taken over by the chairman of the Council of the Republic, the upper house of the Belarusian parliament. It is really a body that has nothing to do with democratic procedures.

Eight members of the council are appointed by the president, and the others are elected, or rather appointed, by the oblast and Minsk councils, and thus also appointed by the head of state. Out of 64 members (traditionally called “senators”), 46 are non-partisan, 17 are representatives of the communist party licensed by the authorities. There is also one representative of the “liberal democrats”, i.e. populist party modelled on the group founded in Russia by Vladimir Zhirinovsky. The chairperson of the council is Natalia Kachanava. She graduated from the polytechnic in Novopolotsk and worked in institutions managing public housing in neighbouring Polotsk; she was also the mayor of Novopolotsk. In 2014, she became deputy prime minister, and in 2016 – head of the Presidential Administration. Three years later, she took over the leadership of the Council of the Republic. In 2020, she was sanctioned by the European Union and other countries, including Great Britain, and therefore has no right to enter their territory. If she took over the helm from Lukashenka, then the elections would have to be held within 70 days.

A special part of Article 88 provides for what happens if the head of state is killed “as a result of an attempt on his life, an act of terrorism or armed aggression”. Then the importance of the already very significant Security Council, today headed by Lukashenka, will be raised. Its meetings would be chaired by the head of the Council of the Republic; The Council then introduces a state of emergency or martial law and takes over the leadership of the state. These are completely new rules – apparently the dictator considered such a situation very likely. A state of emergency may last a month, but the martial law is indefinite, and while it lasts, civil rights are severely restricted.

It is obvious that Lukashenka would like his son, Viktor, to succeed him. He is 48 years old and already performs important functions – he is a member of the aforementioned Security Council and a reserve general. He has also been sanctioned by the EU and other countries. Only Viktor could ensure the continuity of power.

But Lukashenka himself said in 2021 that he had other candidates. “There is only one way to seize power: elections. People have chosen. Period! No children, no relatives. I swear to you something like this will never happen. My children will not be presidents after me... – he said. And he pointed out Yuri Karayev, a militia general, former head of the Ministry of the Interior, of Ossetian nationality, as well as the former health minister, currently in charge of the Grodno region, Uladzimir Karanik (he is also on the list of persons subject to EU sanctions).

Of course, Russia may want to push through its man. Would it be prime minister Raman Halouchenka, a graduate of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGiMO), former ambassador to Abu Dhabi and head of the State Military-Industrial Committee? Hard to say.

SIGN UP TO OUR PAGE Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, quoted by the Belarusian portal Motolko Help, said that for years many Belarusians had at least once wondered what would happen if Lukashenka died. – And of course, champagne and a celebration for the whole country immediately come to mind. But in fact, right after the days of joy, there will be a difficult time. When the whole would have to make a big effort to start rebuilding everything that has been destroyed over the years, and most importantly, to prevent the arrival of another dictator or Russian protégé and preserve independence – she stressed.

As she pointed out, a regular battle will begin in the ranks of Lukashenka’s “elite”. – Their biggest problem is that they have relied on Lukashenka for many years. They owe their positions to him. Once he is gone, the whole influence of this “elite” will be very fragile – and their ambitions are huge – she added. Surely, she is right. Many are preparing for the Belarusian president’s possible death: his men, the opposition, and Russia. It is vital that we too have an understanding of what to do in the new circumstances.

– Piotr Kościński
– Translated by Dominik Szczęsny-Kostanecki

TVP WEEKLY. Editorial team and jornalists